The 2020 Presidential Election’s Most Interesting State: Utah

One of the Most Republican States Swung 30 Points Towards Democrats Last Election. Now What?

Dots to the left of the diagonal line are metros which voted more Democratic in 2016 than in 2012, while dots to the right represent metros which voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2012. Remember: the data here is flawed and shouldn’t be relied upon for any authoritative analyses; I’m just including it to illustrate what I initially found.
Swing towards the Democratic party in presidential vote margin between 2012 and 2016 (this and all other numbers from this point forward will be using my accurate state-level dataset).

God’s State

Some Fancy Math

The “P>|t|” column tells you each factor’s “p-value.” The lower the p-value is, the more likely that that variable still had an impact on our measure in question (2012–2016 swing) when holding other variables constant. A number below 0.05 is generally considered good statistical evidence; a state’s rate of Mormonism has a 0.000. (For this regression, Prob > F = 0.0000, meaning there’s definitely some sort of relationship captured here).

The Great Switch

…Now What?

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